Using ChatGPT, here’s what we see in markets as we head into the end of the year. Wild times, the fun is just getting started with Trump’s non-stop tweets incoming.

Everyone should expect volatility across currencies, stocks, bonds because of all the cross-currents happening globally. You can either absorb the VOL and ride through the storm (have Dramamine handy), or you can trade the VOL to your advantage and around your core holdings. We prefer to benefit from VOL versus it holding us hostage.

Politics and politicians will continue to play chicken with our economy to get the things they want. This creates volatility and false narratives which creates opportunities if you are willing to trade.

Inflation has likely bottomed, higher than the Feds 2% target. Structural inflation is more embedded in the system since the Pandemic. That keeps rates, inflation and the cost of capital higher for longer. Your portfolio needs to reflect companies that benefit most in this new regime. Here’s how consumers are feeling right now and after the election results.

Consumers across income cohorts are experiencing different emotions about inflation. The upper income cohorts with stock portfolios and homes, feel pretty good, the lower income cohorts are still struggling and have changed their shopping behavior. Your stock selection should reflect that. We own brands that are thriving with the upper and lower income cohorts and generally avoiding the middle.

Productivity has already been increasing and thats a very good thing for the economy and for steady economic growth. As new AI tools get rolled out and are implemented into corporate America, we expect more productivity, better operating metrics, solid margin expansion and profitability which means multiples that are high currently, could be sustainable and maybe, just maybe, stocks aren’t nearly as expensive as they look today given the productivity gains from AI. At the governmental level, can you image how lean and mean the government could be if DOGE achieved even a fraction of their goals?

Speculation on lower quality stocks, profitless stocks, and all crypto (particularly fartcoin, its hard to say that with a straight face as it has $700m in fictional, digital worth) got out of control. After 11 days of negative breadth and a nice pullback in crypto, the market feels better going into the end of the year. Amazing how quickly we can go from overbought and with extreme sentiment to oversold and with a VIX hitting almost 30.