Futures Tank on Trump Tariffs

Well, futures have opened and the sellers are back on the continued news of sweeping tariffs across Mexico, Canada, China, and the EU is surely coming. Trump just loves to be a bull in a china shop. Let’s hope the smart folks around him remind him sentiment is a fickle thing and so are his approval ratings. His ego needs to be stroked and he uses the stock market as his score card for success. So far, he’s starting off with a D-.

The three largest trading partners of the U.S. are: Canada, Mexico, and China. The proposed tariffs will affect trade worth about $1.3 trillion, or 43% of US imports. Again, the result of all this lunacy is likely A)high market volatility, B) slowing economic growth, C) higher persistent inflation, D) wild volatility in currency markets, E) added retaliation against the US from these countries, which simply creates a wicked negative feedback loop. Get your trading cap on and keep it close for the next 4 years, thats where the most money will be made. This is what markets will look like 4 years looking backward.

Tariff-Man Strikes Again: Canada, Mexico, China, EU; "We Comin"

Who wins most when Tariff-Man pushes every leader the US is connected to? Algo’s & Volatility. You can be VOL’s girlfriend or you can use VOL to line your pockets with cash. I know which one I prefer. Everyone knows by now what Trump’s playbook looks like. For this reason, I expect more friction between Trump and other world leaders and countries. If I was the leader of a country being tormented with Trump, I would probably torment him back and call his bluff ALOT. Trump, the man who is happy to push too hard, is playing a dangerous game. Friction, volatility and noise causes uncertainty and that causes businesses and consumers to flinch at times, which can cause economic slowdowns. Those are tied directly to stock prices so Trump, who uses the stock market as his barometer for success, is risking the positive wealth effect and markets to line the governments pockets with tariff cash so he can push tax cuts to consumers and companies. It’s like creating a ton of volatility so he can steal money from our left pocket and put it back in our right pocket. The whole thing is idiotic but consider the source!

There is sure to be plenty of tariff news this weekend and the degenerates trading futures for 5 ticks will be licking their chops come Sunday. We should all expect inflation to continue to stay elevated and volatile month to month. For now, the consumer is spending well and the industrial economy is slowing beginning to wake up. There’s alot more to be excited and positive about than you are seeing in the news. Remember, fear mongering is always an effective tactic to get you glued to the media. Once they have you captive, they can monetize your fear into more ad dollars. Don’t get sucked into the FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt). We’ve seen this Trump movie before, we know his playbook, we know what he cares about (our admiration and stocks), and we know he wants his legacy to be viewed as positive. It will all work in the end, until then, buckle up for a wild ride.